🔔ALARMING UK ECONOMIC INDICATORS
🔘 Debt servicing now consumes 7% of total #UK public expenditure
🔘 The government's fiscal headroom of £9.9 billion has been virtually eliminated by rising borrowing costs
🔘 Tax revenue as share of GDP is set to rise to 38.2% by 2029/30, the highest in recent history
MARKET DISTRESS SIGNALS
📉Bond Market Turmoil:
🔘 30-year #gilt yields have reached 5.385%, highest since 1998
🔘 10-year gilt yields at 4.84%, highest since 2008
🔘 UK bond #yields are now higher than during the 2022 Liz #Truss crisis period
💷 Currency Weakness:
🔘 Pound has fallen to $1.23, lowest level since November 2023
🔘 Simultaneous currency weakness and rising yields indicates potential capital flight
🔘 #Sterling has depreciated nearly 2% against the dollar in early 2025 (in the first 10days of Jan only)
STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES
🔘 Economy showed zero growth in Q3 2024
🔘 Inflation has risen to 2.6%, above Bank of #England 's 2% target
🔘 Private consumption expected to increase by only 0.6% in 2025, less than half the BoE's estimate
🔘 Business confidence deteriorating due to increased National Insurance Contributions
🔘 High-growth firms have fallen from 6% to under 4% of all UK companies
🔘 Productivity growth is the weakest on average since at least 1850
🚨HOUSEHOLD STRAIN
🔘 Average annual energy bills increased to #£1,738
🔘 4.4 million mortgage holders face rate increases by December 2027
🔘 420,000 households will face monthly payment increases of more than £500
This combination of indicators suggests a significant deterioration in UK economic fundamentals, with potential for further instability ahead.
🔔ALARMING UK ECONOMIC INDICATORS
·
1 min read
